The IPL is not about cricket, big sixes or cheerleaders. Instead its about more mundane things like TRP ratings, media spends and a big bet on the regulations in the broadcasting sector. But I could be wrong.
Because Mr. Reliable thinks its project execution by one key man with loads of serfs (precisely the way he runs his businesses) Unfortunately his key man was injured and Mumbai looks more confused than sheep without a shepherd. Mr. Raja Fisher thinks its entertainment and ended up selecting the cheerleaders leaving Dravid to select a T(est)20 team. King Khan's Lal Mirch Manoranjan thinks its the movies ... which is why he's paid each of his players deserving (Ishant, Gayle, McCullum) or underserving (Saurav, Ponting, Akhtar, Agarkar) like movie stars. The wage bill of the Knight Riders is the highest of the eight at $6.2 million. The Deccan Chronicle thinks its all about big sixes which is why they packed their side with so many pinchhitters like Gilchrist, Symonds, Afridi, Sharma, Gibbs and Styris that they forgot to select bowlers. To their credit Delhi and Chennai have a well balanced side. But then they have also overpaid for their respective licenses. Given that all the above teams have superstar players they will also have to increase the player fees significantly next year which will put more strain on the team finances.
But the man who has got it all right is the man who understands TRP ratings, media spends and maybe has a sneak preview of what may unfold in Indian broadcasting. That is Lachlan Murdoch of Emerging Media and son of media mogul Rupert Murdoch who owns the Jaipur franchise - A man who understands that break even is more important than glam dolls. He went shopping for decent players with a budget of $3.3 million, half of what Mohali and Kolkata paid; a license that was available cheap since nobody wanted the relatively small Sawai Mansingh Stadium where gate revenues would hardly amount to anything and one star player whom all the boys would look up to as captain, coach and master. The sole blemish being Kaif who I guess would have had a better career in athletics than cricket.
My gut feel, and I again say I may be wrong, is that Murdoch has bet on two things - one that the IPL opens more franchisees - which means more matches to be played but more importantly that broadcasting regulations in India are at an inflection point. Today, 10-15% of subscribers of cable TV networks are reported which means that 85% of people who watch the IPL fund the mafia (which owns the cable networks). If somehow in the future regulations were to change, these monies would flow to the broadcaster, which after Lalit Modi and his BCCI friends take their cut, would flow down equally to all franchisees. There is a performance bonus too! A portion of what flows down to the franchisees (20%) is proportional to the points scored. Now the more matches you play the more people watch (given that we are a cricket crazy country), the more TRP ratings are, the more media spends are (considering that there is 60% less advertising time than a one-day match hence more premium), the more broadcasters make and if Murdoch gets the regulatory call right, he breaks-even faster than anyone in the league irrespective of whether his team wins or loses considering his threadbare budget. Which then allows him to be the first one to make decent transfers since he would have recovered his investment.
There could also be more than just numbers here. My guess is that Murdoch thinks the IPL is a much safer bet to get evening prime-time in Indian households than the content on Star TV. Why go through the hassles of creating content, making directors, producers, actors and spot boys rush through the rigamarole of soap operas and reality shows when you have the biggest reality show all served on a platter. Where people have overpaid (Mumbai and Bangalore licenses were bought for a staggering $111 million. Players fees another $6 million) Murdoch has made a $70 million investment everything included. The synergies he gets far outrival all other teams. The great perfornance of the team is just an icing on the cake - Kicker as is called in the investing world.
Jaipur was the most financially viable side before the tournament started primarily because they didn't play the auction like it was played; rather they made an investment. As my Finance Prof in MDI said, 'The only guy who makes money in an auction is the auctioneer.' My money is firmly behind Jaipur. But don't listen to me. As I have said umpteen times - I could be wrong ;)
PS: I do not doubt Mr. Reliable's and Mr. Raja Fisher's business acumen. However, in an interesting twist to my hypotheses above is the fact that came to light when I was discussing soccer clubs. It seems that businessmen with loads of unaccounted cash indulge themselves in club ownerships. Not to suggest that the two gentlemen above are enagaged in such activity. I do not care if they do or not. But an interesting thought nonetheless.
PPS: Names have been changed on request!
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
October 12, 2007
SEZ Update
43 days after I made a few suggestions (about people displaced by SEZ land sharing the profits with the developer) to resolve the SEZ controversy in India, it looks like someone is listening. The National Policy on Rehabilitation and Resettlement of 2007, provides for structured solutions to help those displaced by SEZs. Relevant portions of text are reproduced here (Source: rediff)
"The new policy seeks to make those entitled for compensation stakeholders in development by allowing them to take up to 20 per cent of the amount in the form of shares if the acquiring entity is authorised to issue these instruments."
"The policy discourages speculative transactions of land acquired for public purposes. As a relief for developers, 30 per cent land can be compulsorily acquired by states for the promoters while the rest has to be bought by them."
"Reliance Industries which is in process of acquiring land for its mega SEZs welcomed the policy. "The policy will boost the industrial development as it clearly defines the land acquisition rules," a Reliance spokesman said."
Which means that the inhabitants of land notified as SEZ land will be able to share in the upside, if any, from the land. That should make them feel much better, and less jealous (refer to the italiced note at the end of this post) of capitalistic developers.
My only concern being will these inhabitants understand the complex finance behind it all? How is this process made to look fair to all parties? How will the rabble-rousers in political circles, who thrive on conflict, look at their golden goose being neutralised, react? Watch this space ... pour in your thoughts if any.
"The new policy seeks to make those entitled for compensation stakeholders in development by allowing them to take up to 20 per cent of the amount in the form of shares if the acquiring entity is authorised to issue these instruments."
"The policy discourages speculative transactions of land acquired for public purposes. As a relief for developers, 30 per cent land can be compulsorily acquired by states for the promoters while the rest has to be bought by them."
"Reliance Industries which is in process of acquiring land for its mega SEZs welcomed the policy. "The policy will boost the industrial development as it clearly defines the land acquisition rules," a Reliance spokesman said."
Which means that the inhabitants of land notified as SEZ land will be able to share in the upside, if any, from the land. That should make them feel much better, and less jealous (refer to the italiced note at the end of this post) of capitalistic developers.
My only concern being will these inhabitants understand the complex finance behind it all? How is this process made to look fair to all parties? How will the rabble-rousers in political circles, who thrive on conflict, look at their golden goose being neutralised, react? Watch this space ... pour in your thoughts if any.
August 29, 2007
Special Economics (of) Zamindari
WARNING: Long-ish :)
A lot has been said about the SEZ controversy. Some call it a land grabbing scam while others have been proposing it as the panacea to our structural problems.
Why are SEZs arousing so much interest? Well one, it’s a bonanza for the developer. Business margins in real estate construction are close to 90% in the case of commercial projects like SEZs. (In the residential housing market they are 100-200%. It is lower in SEZs because money is recovered through leases over longer period of time). Running an SEZ involves just the Property Tax and normal Admin expenses.
So what does the developer do? He puts up 20% of the money, borrows 70% and collects 10% in advance bookings. Since land acquisition would be a difficult and costly affair he creates a separate company (also called a special purpose vehicle, SPV) in which he and a Govt. body are partners. The Govt. body’s sole purpose is to acquire contiguous tracts of land; and land is acquired for a song.
It is because of this that the ‘SEZ Policy’ has attracted investors from all walks of business, and primarily from the IT sector. As IT companies expand, they require more and more place to seat their ever increasing workforce (since seats is the primary driver to secure those multi-million/billion dollar outsourcing / software maintenance contracts). Today the IT and BPO industry are accounting for 70% of the real estate demand and more than 60%-70% of the SEZs are meant for the IT / ITeS industry. The rest are distributed among sectors like biotechnology, gems & jewellery, automobiles and the like.
But do we really need SEZs for IT? In reality, the IT chaps derive very little benefit in being part of an SEZ since the tax incentives they already enjoy and those in an SEZ do not vary much. The only industries that will benefit immensely are those that can integrate their process inside an SEZ (i.e. have most of their business partners from raw material to end product). The ease of flow of business and the added incentive of customs waivers and tax benefits will accelerate their growth. China has adopted this model. Shenzen is a massive 50,000 hectares and I don’t think IT companies are housed inside. India’s largest on the other hand, the Reliance promoted Navi Mumbai and Maha Mumbai are collectively 14,000 hectares. Most of our other SEZs are in the sub 500 range catering mainly to the IT sector.
So do we really need so many SEZs? The answer is yes. We require SEZs for small and medium enterprises; lots of them. The software industry is mature enough to fund their own buildings. Which brings us to the next question: Why all this brouhaha in the media? A few points follow.
One, current land owners are not compensated enough: True. Govt. vehicles ensure that the SEZ land is acquired cheap
Two, we are losing agricultural land: False. Land has to be put to its best use. If we (India’s GDP) gain more by setting up an SEZ rather than agriculture, it makes more sense to go for the former. In this age of global linkages we better not be thinking micro.
Three, Farmers lose their livelihood: Partly answered by point one. Farmers should be compensated adequately for their land and for their occupation. Options include training them in a new skill, ensuring a certain percentage employment in the SEZ, or even a share in the SEZ profits.
Also these three points have been magnified by political parties for vested interests.
I am sure that if the powers that be have a more humane look at the issues in an SEZ, all parties can share in the economic boom, farmer and developer alike. Till that happens though we will be transforming IT companies into real estate banks.
(Afterthought: IF the sides of the table were interchanged and farmers were developers and vice versa what would the reaction be? Would capitalism or socialism triumph? Me says capitalism since man is inherently selfish and 100% so in the matters of money. Which of the hardened socialists would not want to get his stuff at a lower price? If so then there is nothing emotional about this issue, it’s just power politics at play!)
A lot has been said about the SEZ controversy. Some call it a land grabbing scam while others have been proposing it as the panacea to our structural problems.
Why are SEZs arousing so much interest? Well one, it’s a bonanza for the developer. Business margins in real estate construction are close to 90% in the case of commercial projects like SEZs. (In the residential housing market they are 100-200%. It is lower in SEZs because money is recovered through leases over longer period of time). Running an SEZ involves just the Property Tax and normal Admin expenses.
So what does the developer do? He puts up 20% of the money, borrows 70% and collects 10% in advance bookings. Since land acquisition would be a difficult and costly affair he creates a separate company (also called a special purpose vehicle, SPV) in which he and a Govt. body are partners. The Govt. body’s sole purpose is to acquire contiguous tracts of land; and land is acquired for a song.
It is because of this that the ‘SEZ Policy’ has attracted investors from all walks of business, and primarily from the IT sector. As IT companies expand, they require more and more place to seat their ever increasing workforce (since seats is the primary driver to secure those multi-million/billion dollar outsourcing / software maintenance contracts). Today the IT and BPO industry are accounting for 70% of the real estate demand and more than 60%-70% of the SEZs are meant for the IT / ITeS industry. The rest are distributed among sectors like biotechnology, gems & jewellery, automobiles and the like.
But do we really need SEZs for IT? In reality, the IT chaps derive very little benefit in being part of an SEZ since the tax incentives they already enjoy and those in an SEZ do not vary much. The only industries that will benefit immensely are those that can integrate their process inside an SEZ (i.e. have most of their business partners from raw material to end product). The ease of flow of business and the added incentive of customs waivers and tax benefits will accelerate their growth. China has adopted this model. Shenzen is a massive 50,000 hectares and I don’t think IT companies are housed inside. India’s largest on the other hand, the Reliance promoted Navi Mumbai and Maha Mumbai are collectively 14,000 hectares. Most of our other SEZs are in the sub 500 range catering mainly to the IT sector.
So do we really need so many SEZs? The answer is yes. We require SEZs for small and medium enterprises; lots of them. The software industry is mature enough to fund their own buildings. Which brings us to the next question: Why all this brouhaha in the media? A few points follow.
One, current land owners are not compensated enough: True. Govt. vehicles ensure that the SEZ land is acquired cheap
Two, we are losing agricultural land: False. Land has to be put to its best use. If we (India’s GDP) gain more by setting up an SEZ rather than agriculture, it makes more sense to go for the former. In this age of global linkages we better not be thinking micro.
Three, Farmers lose their livelihood: Partly answered by point one. Farmers should be compensated adequately for their land and for their occupation. Options include training them in a new skill, ensuring a certain percentage employment in the SEZ, or even a share in the SEZ profits.
Also these three points have been magnified by political parties for vested interests.
I am sure that if the powers that be have a more humane look at the issues in an SEZ, all parties can share in the economic boom, farmer and developer alike. Till that happens though we will be transforming IT companies into real estate banks.
(Afterthought: IF the sides of the table were interchanged and farmers were developers and vice versa what would the reaction be? Would capitalism or socialism triumph? Me says capitalism since man is inherently selfish and 100% so in the matters of money. Which of the hardened socialists would not want to get his stuff at a lower price? If so then there is nothing emotional about this issue, it’s just power politics at play!)
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